|
In a recent issue of Popular Science magazine one of the featured
articles was a compendium of predictions about what automobiles
will be like in 25 years. A futurist by the name of Amory Lovins
from the Rocky Mountain Institute made the prediction that "Today's
auto industry will be toast by about 2020." He went on to say that
"Cars in 2025 will be molded from advanced polymer composites, they
will be lighter by threefold, ultra-low drag yet more crash-worthy,
durable, reliable, recyclable, and spacious, with electric propulsion
powered by direct hydrogen fuel cells." Do you think Mr. Lovins
is right in these predictions given the huge investment in existing
factories, the extensive and well-established supply chain, and
the need to thoroughly test any new material before committing it
to a cost-sensitive product that must pass all kinds of safety tests
and government regulations? If you do, then perhaps you also believe
in the tooth fairy?
In the mid-eighties, there was much talk about the imminent arrival
of the paperless office. After all, with desk-top computers evolving
to provide all the storage capability that anyone could reasonably
need, why continue to clutter up our offices with information on
pieces of paper?
At about the same time, we also experienced the first wave of promotion
for teleconferencing as a substitute for business travel. But what
do airports look like fifteen years later -- in the year 2000? Are
they peaceful, nearly empty havens serving only those pleasure-related
travel needs that cannot easily be met through the widespread use
of teleconferencing? Did even one of the technology-driven futurists
envision (from their mid-eighties perspective) today—s reality of
airplanes flying filled to capacity, with people squeezed into exceedingly
small spaces, eating incredibly bad food, and frequently not even
departing or arriving at their intended times?
Maybe we can learn something by comparing these predictions to
the actual outcomes. Just as television did not eliminate movie
theaters and movie theaters did not eliminate live theater, perhaps
we should consider that a new technology will often create a result
exactly opposite to what a cursory observation might indicate. We
all now know that instead of giving us a paperless office, the computer
gave us the power to create vast new quantities of paper. Now, as
we write, our word processors allow us to regenerate one or more
pages with each minor correction, and we often reprint the entire
document with just one thoughtless keystroke. In this context, let
us consider what the Internet may be facilitating.
We are communicating with each other more than ever before. We
have continued our use of location-based telephones. We have increased
our communications capability by adding wearable, location-independent
telephones. Many of us now have home fax machines. And the use of
e-mail and the Internet have added yet another channel by which
we communicate. The Internet has proved to be especially handy for
international messages. The price can be low, or virtually free
in some parts of the world, and the messages can be sent without
regard to time differences. Language barriers are also easier to
manage than via telephone. If we have all this available to us,
then why are we travelling more instead of less? Are we like the
"paperless office," behaving contrary to a "clearly obvious" conclusion?
What I think is happening is that the world-wide relationships
we are building through these new electronic media are becoming
so useful that we wish to strengthen them further through face-to-face
encounters. Within the technical community, we do this through conferences,
seminars, and visits to companies. The electronic communications
media have allowed us to increase the number of relationships that
we can support, and have made them independent of location. Therefore,
when we do want to solidify them through personal contact, or accomplish
tasks that are too complicated to perform at a distance, we end
up travelling -- more than before.
Last September in my column titled "Search and Acquire" I suggested
that the Internet provides a near-instant world-wide capability
for the acquisition of information and goods. However, certain kinds
of information and goods are better suited to the Internet than
others -- an important but harsh lesson that many of the recently-formed
dot-com companies are now learning. However, for the rest of us,
it is comforting to know that most conventional stores will be in
business for many years to come and, in fact, will benefit from,
rather than be threatened by, the Internet. Similarly, the traditional
mail-order businesses are learning how to use both printed catalogs
and the new electronic media to defend their market positions. It
seems that the benefits of the Internet to established information
and commerce providers are far exceeding the competitive threats.
The Society for Information Display is likewise beginning to discover
how to do more for the world-wide display community through the
use of the Internet. Our web-site is turning out be a highly valued
and extensively accessed information resource. While we expected
that www.sid.org would provide useful information to the display
community, we did not initially anticipate just how well the Internet
would be suited to many of the search-and-acquire activities that
SID members and others find so valuable.
By analyzing usage statistics, we are able to tell that many individuals
access the site to check on conferences -- and then end up registering
for those conferences on-line rather than by mail or by standing
in line upon arrival at a conference. Conference Proceedings and
other publications are being accessed and papers are being downloaded
in large numbers. People networks are being developed through membership
searches. Employment opportunities are being explored. sid.org is
becoming the focal point for timely information on all that is important
to the display community.
The Internet has also aided the internationalization of our Society.
More detailed communications can be transmitted instantly. For example,
paper summaries can be forwarded to technical-program committee
members anywhere in the world with no loss of time or readability.
Frequent communications can and do take place with the Society's
officers and with the SID office in San Jose. There is no noticeable
difference between a local communication and one that spans the
globe. For technical data searches, for information about upcoming
events, for access to publications, for forming people networks,
and for working with others on specific information-intensive tasks,
the SID web-site is becoming the medium of choice.
www.sid.org will continue to evolve and improve as we add more
capabilities. And we can expect that these capabilities will only
serve to enhance all of our other activities. Our conferences will
continue to grow and we will add others that serve the growing display
community. Our printed publications will benefit from easier dissemination
of specific articles. And the worldwide networks of display experts
will grow, and information exchanges will be facilitated.
It is my great honor and pleasure to be able to participate in
this world-wide network we call the display community. I encourage
and appreciate your communications with me. What new features would
you like to see on the SID web-site? You can reach me via the Internet
at
Email
or at president@sid.org, or by telephone at 425-557-8850, by FAX
at 425-557-8983, or by the ever-available paper medium known as
the U.S. Postal Service at 22513 SE 47th Place, Sammamish, WA 98075. Close this window |