New Displays Technologies
THE INFORMATION AGE -- ARE DISPLAYS KEEPING
UP?
Aris Silzars, Past President SID
Abstract: Here we explore the existing
and projected markets for displays and their applications, consider
the status and evolution of display technologies, and look at the next
generation of products that will evolve to meet the needs of the Information
Age. The influence of location-independent communications,
“wearable” electronics, adaptive advertising, and interactive
commerce is discussed. We conclude with a projection of which display
technologies will have the best opportunities for meeting the needs
of these new product applications.
In the next decade, we can expect a proliferation of products incorporating
displays inspired by the continuing rapid progress in compute power,
image-processing software, and communications bandwidth. This will continue
the accelerating trend which started over two decades ago as the use
of electronic displays in non-television applications evolved from a
few specialty products such as test instruments, military systems, and
data terminals to become the primary human interface with computers and
data communications devices. In 1980 there were no desktop or laptop
computers. Today their compute power rivals the mainframes of only a
few years ago. Communications have evolved from a few "car phones" to
almost everyone now being reachable independently of their location.
Many of these changes were predicted by the well-known Moore's Law that
states that compute power doubles every eighteen months to two years.
Some well-respected software developers claim that image-processing capability
is currently evolving even faster. The rate of data communications and
data-base "interconnectedness"
is also increasing rapidly.
Twenty years ago, displays built on the solid foundation created by
television and instrumentation applications, had more than adequate capability
for the first rudimentary PCs and video games. For playing simple games
like "pong,"
a monochrome CRT screen did not present a limitation. Today, the best
CRTs and LCD panels are still a reasonable match for desktop computers
and perhaps barely adequate for portable laptop computers, cell-phones,
and current-generation PDAs. But, what happens next?
Because of forty years of television and instrumentation developments,
displays were way ahead of what computers needed in the 1980's. Today,
we may be no better than at parity. At our present rate of progress,
in another ten years we will have become the highly visible bottleneck
of the Internet Society.
The best that we can accomplish in bringing new display products to
market in the next ten years has to a large degree already been set by
what we know today about the basic materials and processes for creating
emissive, transmissive, or reflective displays. How well we meet the
needs of our colleagues in the rest of the high-technology community
over the next decade will now depend on how much enthusiasm we can create
in the investment community, and within the larger corporations, while
being realistic in telling the world what rate of progress can be expected.
Over the next decade, some of the well-established display application
areas such as television and personal computers will continue to be important
to the display community. However, television will migrate to a combination
of higher image standards and personal computers will become just one
of the many ways in which we access and process information. Other applications
such as "wearable" electronics, specialized automotive uses,
internet appliances, the electronic home, advertising and public displays,
and a plethora of toys and games will lead the way to the creation of
totally new applications of display technologies. These applications
will encourage the development of an ever- growing variety of display
devices. These newer applications will prove to be excellent market entry
points for new display technologies just as the laptop computer proved
to be for high-information-content LCDs.
The display technologies that we will have at our disposal either already
exist today in their mature forms such as CRTs and LCDs or in the early-stage
basic materials technologies such as OLEDs and FEDs. The mature technologies
will continue to dominate the next decade. The newer technologies will
typically find their first applications in new products that are yet
to be developed. The proliferation of products and applications that
use displays will drive a similar proliferation of display types and
technologies. The new products such as next-generation PDAs and other
Internet appliances will be the fertile ground that will allow new display
technologies to be introduced.
The greatest successes will be the result of strong international relationships
that will facilitate the transition of innovative new technologies, first
into specialty products sold in relatively small volumes, eventually
to be followed by the move to larger volume applications. This will be
accomplished through business alliances with companies having excellent
capability to develop cost-effective manufacturing processes. It is only
through such international cooperation that it will be possible to meet
the accelerating demands of the Internet Society for displays that are
larger, smaller, brighter, more versatile, and lower in cost.
Link to PPT slide show. Will
download to your computer, and can be viewed with PPT reader.
Outline
of Key Points |
NEW
DISPLAY TECHNOLOGIES for the INFORMATION AGE. |
FUNDAMENTAL
DRIVING FORCES |
•Compute Power
•Image Processing Software
•Communications Bandwidth
•Location Independent Communications |
NEW
PRODUCT TRENDS |
• Limited “Convergence” of Television and Internet
• Internet Appliances
• Location Independent - Wearable - Devices
• Electronic and Interactive Public Displays
• Display Driven Transactions
• Display Driven Work Environments |
THE
ELECTRONIC HOME |
• Homes and Electronics have different life cycles.
• Computers, Entertainment, and Communications
will continue to dominate home displays.
• Computer-controlled Appliances and other integrated
functions requiring changes in home
wiring or construction will have slow
and limited acceptance.
• Complicated electronic security systems such
as eye recognition will have only a small market.
• Reliability and easy repair are important criteria. |
INTERNET
APPLIANCES |
• Time Sensitive Information
• Electronic Commerce
• Data Searches
• e-mail Communications
• Later - Real-time video images
• Proliferation of Application Specific Products
• Ease of Use - Instant Access (opposite of PC)
• Low Cost and Virus Proof |
TRANSPORTATION---CARS,
TRAINS & AIRPLANES |
• Entertainment “Clusters”.
• Navigation and Communications.
• Minimal Usage for Basic (Dashboard) Information.
• Need for Sunlight Readability, Ruggedness, and
Long Life. |
LOCATION
INDEPENDENT COMMUNICATIONS |
• “Wearable” Electronics
• Increasing Complexity of PDAs
• Convergence of Communications and Computers
• Communications and Entertainment |
ADVERTSISING
AND PUBLIC DISPLAYS |
• Large Video Walls
• Kiosks
• Airports
• Sports Stadiums
• Shopping Malls
• Logo Sites - Transit Vehicles
• Show Room Display Windows
• Many Low Resolution Signage Applications
• Tiled and Conformable |
TOYS
AND GAMES |
• Intelligent robots.
• Interactive and Realistic Games.
• Learning Aids.
• Virtual Persons. |
NEEDED--DISPLAYS
THAT ARE VERSATILE AND AFFORDABLE |
• Resolution
• Brightness - Sunlight Readable
• Low power - Efficient
• Large Panels - segmented, conformable, low cost |
STATUS
OF DISPLAY TECHNOLOGIES |
• For Image Quality, All Major Display Technologies are now "Good
Enough.”
• For most Television and entertainment applications,
an NTSC (or similar) signal, with image processing, meets
consumer needs.
• CRT -- Continuing Improvements still happening
• Plasma -- Various Sizes from less than 35 inch
to 100+ inches
• LCD -- Now available in sizes greater than 40
inches
• Projection -- Based on CRT, LC, and DMD |
CURRENTLY
ALL DISPLAY TECHNOLOGIES ARE 'GOOD ENOUGH' FOR VIEWING IN MOST
APPLICATIONS |
• Resolution
• Color Gamut
• Contrast
• Brightness in Outdoor Environments
• Efficiency (The big opportunity for OLEDs) |
WHEN
IS A DISPLAY 'GOOD ENOUGH' |
• TV -- 500 to 700 Lines Progressive Scan -- Depending on Screen
Size
• Computer Monitors -- 1024 x 1280 (SXGA)
• Hand Held Devices -- From less than 480 x 640
(VGA) to 600 x 800 (SVGA) for Internet appliances
|
CRTs |
• Over 100 Years of development
• Still an excellent display technology - especially
for imaging applications.
• Still a dominant display -- year 2005+
• New innovations possible and likely
— Too big and too heavy
— Inherently unstable but versatile - color, geometry
— Susceptible to magnetic fields
|
LCDs |
• The Dominant Flat Panel Display of the next decade.
• From Watches to Calculators to Instruments to
Avionics to Laptop Computers to Projectors.
• A difficult technology - made to work exceedingly
well.
— Temperature sensitive
— Inherently poor contrast
— Poor angle of view
— Manufacturing costs high for Active Matrix.
— Back light + filters reduce efficiency to less than
10%.
The next decade will see lower cost, even larger sizes, and
more use for television.
|
THE
NEXT TEN YEARS FOR LCDs |
• The Dominant Display Technology
— Computer Monitors (15” - 20”+)
— Television (20” - 60”+)
— Laptop Computers
— “Wearable” Electronics
New backlighting technologies are the next big opportunity
|
PLASMA
PANELS |
• The first plasma
panels -- direct view gas discharge and monochrome orange color.
• Currently the best emissive display technology
for larger sizes and video images.
• Challenges
— efficiency
— brightness
— cost and manufacturing scale-up
|
PROJECTION
DISPLAYS |
•Front Projection for Conference
Rooms.
•Rear Projection for Entertainment, Video Conferencing, and
desk top monitors.
•Competition for Plasma displays and LCD panels.
•Many technology approaches viable -- CRT, LCD, MEMS, and combinations
of light amplifiers and color converters.
•New possibilities for color accuracy and display quality. |
TECHNOLOGY
CHOICES FOR PROJECTION DISPLAYS |
• CRT Projection
Tubes for Rear Projection
— Lowest Cost But Difficult to
Improve Brightness and Reduce Size
• LCD (LCOS) for Front and Rear Projection
— LCOS has good performance but is
likely to be expensive because of silicon substrate processing
and tight tolerances.
• DMD/MEMS Technologies for Front and Rear Projection
— Complex Technology that combines
Silicon and MEMS and is difficult to get to Lower Cost |
LEDs |
• From watches
to indicator lights to stoplights to large billboards.
— Best Sunlight readable emissive display technology.
— Blue only recently available.
— Efficient - possible future use in lighting applications,
for projection displays, and for
backlighting.
— More work needed on low-cost arrays and “active”
addressing.
|
0LEDs |
• Potential Advantages
— High brightness
— High contrast - more than 100:1
— High resolution - 12 micron pixels
— High efficiency - more than 10 lumens/W
— Wide viewing angle
— Fast response time - typically in the microsecond range
— Gray scale easy to achieve
• Environmental ruggedness, differential aging,
and manufacturing issues are remaining challenges. |
FEDs |
• Too Many Promises -- Too Soon!
• Potential Advantages
— Bright - sunlight readable
— Less than 1/10th the thickness and weight of CRTs
— Wide viewing angle
— Wide temperature range
— Large dimming range >50,000:1
— More efficient than backlit LCDs
• Fundamental material research is continuing.
• Manufacturing issues have not yet been resolved
- except possibly by Canon/Toshiba. |
NEED
FOR NEW DISPLAY MATERIALS |
• Progress in Displays and Lighting Depends on New Materials
• The Only “Breakthroughs”
Occur at the Materials Level
• Wider Applications of Displays and Lighting
Technologies Depend on New Materials Developments -- e.g. OLED’s |
CONCLUDING
REMARKS |
• Variety is good -- but technology infrastructure is driven
by large volume applications.
• Acceptance Threshold - when is it good enough?
• Breakthroughs only occur at the materials level.
• Micro-displays and projection technologies offer
best new opportunities for specialized applications.
• The future is not so mysterious once we understand
the rate of progress and the path required from basic materials
discoveries all the way to volume manufacturing of products.
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